"yellow danger"The author of this expression is the French publicist Paul Leroy Beaulieu. So he expressed his fears at the end of the 19th century about the" awakening of the East ": the strengthening of China and Japan. Subsequently, this expression was often repeated by the German emperor Wilhelm II (1888-1918), thanks to which it entered the socio-political vocabulary of European countries.
At the turn of the 19th and 20th centuries, fear of the "yellow peril" hovered over Western Europe. According to the theory of the same name, the new century was to be the century of the "influx" of conquering settlers from Asia. And if it would take time and considerable effort for the Asians to get to the West, then they were within easy reach of the territory of the Russian Empire ...
Shortly after the end of the Sino-Japanese War, Wilhelm II reminds his St. Petersburg cousin Nicholas II of the "great role Russia must play in planting culture in Asia and in protecting the cross and the old Christian European culture against the invasion of the Mongols and Buddhism." The letter is dated July 1895, and two months later, continuing the same propaganda campaign, the Kaiser sends to many statesmen and prominent personalities of Europe, including Nicholas II, a reproduction of the painting "Die gelbe Gefahr" ("Yellow Peril"), which is designed to serve a clear illustration of his recent statements. Wilhelm II presents this picture as his own work, although in reality its author was the German artist Knackfuss, professor at the Academy of Arts in Kassel. [ note royal_ farr - probably Wilhelm II was the author of the idea of ​​the painting or its sketch].

The painting depicts a group of female figures with weapons, symbolizing European countries standing on the edge of the abyss, called by the Archangel Michael to unite in order to resist Buddhism, paganism and barbarism in order to protect the Cross. Ahead is a female figure in a helmet with an eagle, symbolizing Germany, allegories of other European countries crowd behind her, it is symbolic that a female figure of Russia with a double-headed eagle on armor holds a female figure by the hand, personifying England, as if calling her to an alliance.
In front of them, in the sky, riding dragons, a yellow Buddha hovers, surrounded by gloomy clouds. In color, the picture produced an ominous impression.
The caption on the painting: "Vulker Europas, wahrtet eure heiligsten Giiter" (Peoples of Europe, take care of your holy treasures). According to Wilhelm, this picture symbolizes that the peoples of Europe must unite in order to resist the danger looming from the East.
Now this picture, perhaps, is perceived as an example of historical foresight, but then the assessment was different - Wilhelm's trick was considered an eccentricity. Some modern historians regard Wilhelm's role as provocative, believing that in this way he sought to divert the attention of European neighbors from German military development and ambitions as much as possible.
What happened in real life. Towards the yellow danger, Europe pushed Russia out. The rest of the peoples watched the bloody struggle, either with fear, or with curiosity, or with gloating, while they shed crocodile tears and pathetically shouted out: "Russia must certainly win! ... For the sake of our interests in the Far East! .. ."
The painting "Yellow Danger" was widely disseminated in Russia in the press and on postcards during the Russo-Japanese War of 1904-1905. Its original hangs to this day in the bathroom of the former Livadia Palace in the Crimea, 2 km from Yalta.

Source -

The author of this expression is the French publicist Paul Leroy Beaulieu (1843-1916), who first expressed his fears about the "awakening of the East" - the strengthening of countries such as China, and especially Japan. Having originated in France, the term, however, was most widely used in imperialist circles in such states as Germany, the British Empire, and the United States, which had the most diverse interests in the East. Subsequently, this expression was often repeated by the German emperor Wilhelm II, thanks to which it entered the socio-political vocabulary of European countries and acquired a xenophobic, jingoist connotation.

At present, this term has been used again in connection with the development of the "Asian tigers" and, above all, the People's Republic of China.

At the end of the 19th - beginning of the 20th century, the peoples of the Far East began to be considered in the context of racial theories as "yellow", opposing the "whites".

The prerequisites for the rise of China's role were created by Deng Xiaoping's reforms in the late 1970s and early 1980s, which allowed private enterprise and opened up the country's borders, while pursuing a strictly protectionist foreign economic policy. In connection with these, some publicists and analysts already in the 1990s began to talk about the "Chinese threat" in various fields.

Currently, the “yellow danger” syndrome is being updated in Russia. At the same time, the term itself practically goes out of real use, the term "Chinese expansion" is more often used. If at the turn of the 19th-20th centuries the Chinese were considered as representatives of the "yellow race", at present the notion of expansion, which is carried out and mobilized by the PRC, is widespread. There are estimates of the number of Chinese in Russia, unconfirmed by serious calculations and data from border services, from hundreds of thousands to 5-6 million people in connection with their alleged mass illegal migration to the Russian Federation. Also, since the beginning of the 90s, a myth has been formed about the places of compact settlement of the Chinese in the Far East.

There is an alternative point of view. N. Mikhalkov refused to embody it in the plan of the film script proposed to him, but spoke in detail about it in a television program: instead of the gradual economic and demographic development of the sparsely populated Far East, there are conditions that allow the PRC army to quickly seize adjacent territories. His low assessment of the ability of the Russian army to defend the Far East corresponds to the expert's opinion.

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Notes

An excerpt characterizing the Yellow Peril

- Well, did you have fun? said Ilya Andreich, smiling joyfully and proudly at his son. Nikolai wanted to say yes, but he could not: he almost sobbed. The count lit his pipe and did not notice the state of his son.
"Oh, inevitably!" Nikolai thought for the first and last time. And suddenly, in the most careless tone, such that he seemed disgusting to himself, as if he was asking the carriage to go to the city, he said to his father.
- Dad, I came to you for business. I had and forgot. I need money.
"That's it," said the father, who was in a particularly cheerful spirit. “I told you that it won’t. Is it a lot?
“A lot,” said Nikolai, blushing and with a stupid, careless smile, which for a long time later he could not forgive himself. - I lost a little, that is, even a lot, a lot, 43 thousand.
- What? To whom?... You're kidding! shouted the Count, suddenly blushing apoplectically on his neck and the back of his head, as old people blush.
“I promised to pay tomorrow,” Nikolai said.
“Well!” said the old count, spreading his arms and sank helplessly on the sofa.
- What to do! Who hasn't this happened to? - said the son in a cheeky, bold tone, while in his soul he considered himself a scoundrel, a scoundrel who could not atone for his crime all his life. He would like to kiss his father's hands, on his knees to ask for his forgiveness, and he casually and even rudely said that this happens to everyone.
Count Ilya Andreich lowered his eyes on hearing these words of his son and hurried, looking for something.
“Yes, yes,” he said, “it’s hard, I’m afraid, it’s hard to get ... with anyone! yes, with whom it has not happened ... - And the count glanced at his son's face and went out of the room ... Nikolai was preparing to fight back, but did not expect this at all.
- Daddy! pa ... hemp! he shouted after him, sobbing; excuse me! And, seizing his father's hand, he pressed his lips to it and wept.

While the father was explaining himself to his son, an equally important explanation was taking place between the mother and her daughter. Natasha, excited, ran to her mother.
- Mom! ... Mom! ... he made me ...
- What did you do?
- Made an offer. Mother! Mother! she shouted. The Countess could not believe her ears. Denisov made an offer. To whom? This tiny girl Natasha, who until recently played with dolls and now still took lessons.
- Natasha, full of nonsense! she said, still hoping it was a joke.
- Well, nonsense! “I’m talking to you,” Natasha said angrily. - I came to ask what to do, and you tell me: "nonsense" ...
The countess shrugged.
- If it is true that Monsieur Denisov proposed to you, then tell him that he is a fool, that's all.
“No, he’s not a fool,” Natasha said offendedly and seriously.
- Well, what do you want? You are all in love these days. Well, in love, so marry him! said the Countess, laughing angrily. - With God blessing!
“No, mother, I am not in love with him, I must not be in love with him.
“Well, just tell him that.
- Mom, are you angry? Don't be angry, my dear, what am I to blame for?
“No, what is it, my friend? If you want, I'll go and tell him, - said the countess, smiling.
- No, I myself, just teach. Everything is easy for you,” she added, answering her smile. “And if you saw how he told me this!” After all, I know that he did not want to say this, but he accidentally said it.
- Well, you still have to refuse.
- No, you don't have to. I feel so sorry for him! He is so cute.
Well, take the offer. And then it’s time to get married, ”the mother said angrily and mockingly.
“No, Mom, I feel so sorry for him. I don't know how I will say.
“Yes, you don’t have anything to say, I’ll say it myself,” said the countess, indignant at the fact that they dared to look at this little Natasha as a big one.
“No, no way, I’m on my own, and you listen at the door,” and Natasha ran through the living room into the hall, where Denisov was sitting on the same chair, at the clavichord, covering his face with his hands. He jumped up at the sound of her light footsteps.
- Natalie, - he said, approaching her with quick steps, - decide my fate. She is in your hands!
"Vasily Dmitritch, I'm so sorry for you!... No, but you're so nice... but don't... it's... but I'll always love you like that."
Denisov bent over her hand, and she heard strange sounds, incomprehensible to her. She kissed him on his black, matted, curly head. At that moment, the hasty noise of the countess's dress was heard. She approached them.
“Vasily Dmitritch, I thank you for the honor,” said the countess in an embarrassed voice, but which seemed strict to Denisov, “but my daughter is so young, and I thought that you, as a friend of my son, would first turn to me. In that case, you would not put me in the need for a refusal.
“Mr. Athena,” Denisov said with downcast eyes and a guilty look, he wanted to say something else and stumbled.
Natasha could not calmly see him so miserable. She began to sob loudly.
“Mr. Athena, I am guilty before you,” Denisov continued in a broken voice, “but know that I idolize your daughter and your entire family so much that I will give two lives ...” He looked at the countess and, noticing her stern face ... “Well, goodbye, Mrs. Athena,” he said, kissed her hand and, without looking at Natasha, left the room with quick, decisive steps.

Introduction

"Yellow Peril" is a descriptive name for potential aggression from the many and rapidly growing Asian nations. The author of this expression is the French publicist Paul Leroy Beaulieu (1843-?), who first expressed his fears about the "awakening of the East" - the strengthening of countries such as China and especially Japan. Having originated in France, the term, however, was most widely used in the imperialist circles of such states as Germany, the British Empire, and the USA, which had the most diverse interests in the East. Subsequently, this expression was often repeated by the German emperor Wilhelm II, thanks to which it entered the socio-political vocabulary of European countries and acquired a xenophobic, jingoist connotation.

At present, this term has acquired a new sound in connection with the development of the "Asian tigers" and, above all, the People's Republic of China.

1. History

1.1. US and Pacific

"The Yellow Terror In All His Glory", 1899 editorial cartoon

Chinese immigration to the United States has long been held back in the states of Hawaii (where Asians make up about a third of the population) and California (12.5% ​​of the population). Many Chinese, Japanese and Koreans, traditionally living in closed Chinatown ghettoes, became targets of discrimination and even massacre by white Americans (Chinese pogrom of 1871). A similar situation was observed in other migrant British colonies (Canada, Australia until the middle of the 19th century. The exception was a number of Caribbean islands, where the Chinese were brought as coolie workers to work on plantations.

1.2. 1970s - 1980s: Japanese threat

In the 1970s and 1980s, the technological and financial development of Japan forced Western economists to talk about the Japanese threat. However, since the 1990s, Japan has begun to lose its position, largely due to the rapid growth of China.

2 Modernity: The Chinese Threat

Chinese threat(English) China threat or English. Chinese danger) or yellow danger(English) yellow railing) - designation of a set of negative consequences for various countries of the world, to which the rapid development of the PRC in the late 20th - early 21st century leads or may lead.

The prerequisites for the rise of China's role were created by Deng Xiaoping's reforms in the late 1970s and early 1980s, which permitted private enterprise and opened up the country's borders while pursuing a strictly protectionist foreign economic policy. The initial benefits of China's development for other countries, such as cheap goods and access to a new market in China, gradually turned into significant losses. This led some analysts to talk about the Chinese threat in various areas already in the 1990s.

2.1. Chinese Threat Factors

Economic development

Export of China to the countries of the world in 2006

Since the early 1980s, the Chinese economy has shown steady and unprecedented growth by world standards (up to 10% per year), which allowed it to reach the status of the 2nd world economy in terms of GDP by 2010. This growth was explained both by objective factors (such as huge demographic resources, cultural characteristics with a focus on diligent study and thorough work), and factors that allow us to speak of unfair competition from China, namely:

Protectionist government policy. China actively uses the advantages of global free trade to capture markets for its goods abroad, while blocking the access of possible competitors to its domestic market by various methods.

Currency policy. The Chinese leadership has kept the yuan undervalued for several decades, massively supporting the export of Chinese goods. Numerous demands from China's largest trading partners for a course correction were effectively ignored.

Theft of intellectual property.

Resource control

A threat to the social market economy of developed countries.

financial potential. China's gold and foreign exchange reserves, thanks to a huge positive trade balance, reached by June 2010 2.45 trillion. USD United States and can be used as an instrument of pressure on other countries. .

Strengthening military power

Chinese paratroopers

China already has the largest army in the world, with some 2.5 million active duty men and another million in reserve. China is conducting a massive modernization of its weapons, see the PRC Armed Forces. Having numerous territorial claims against neighboring countries (see Territorial Issues of the PRC), although China did not go into direct conflict with other countries in the 1990s-2000s, it repeatedly confirmed its claims in political statements.

However, military actions from China should not be expected in the near future, as its leaders prioritize rapid economic development and the achievement of world hegemony by economic methods.

Demographic development

With a population of over 1.3 billion, China is the world's largest country by population. The birth control policy (One family - one child) led to some slowdown in China's population growth in the 1980s and 1990s, but since the 2000s this policy has not been implemented so strictly, which spurs further population growth. Demographic pressure inside China encourages Chinese emigration to other countries.

Active Chinese immigration has already led to anti-Chinese clashes in various countries, such as Indonesia, Malaysia and Australia.

Inside the PRC, the Chinese actively assimilate non-Chinese peoples who had their own states before the Chinese occupation, among other things:

Tibetans, see PRC Policy towards Tibet.

Uyghurs, see East Turkestan Independence Movement, Uyghur Unrest in Urumqi (2009).

Violation of an individual's rights

"Unknown rebel", Tiananmen, 1989

Human rights in China are regarded as problematic by most Western countries and human rights organizations. Until now, up to several thousand people a year are subject to the death penalty in China, there is strict censorship and some political freedoms are limited. Although human rights violations are formally an internal Chinese problem, they can be a problem for others as well, for example, in the form of criminal prosecution of foreign citizens in China, refugees, etc.

Once again, the contempt of the Chinese leadership for human rights and world opinion was manifested in China's sharply negative assessment and boycott of the Nobel Peace Prize by Chinese human rights activist Liu Xiaobo in 2010. Moreover, political pressure from China led to the fact that the award ceremony was boycotted also representatives of 17 other countries, including Russia.

environmental threat

Betting on rapid economic development, the Chinese leadership viewed possible negative environmental consequences as a necessary evil. This has already led to significant environmental problems within China itself. The uncontrolled emission of carbon dioxide by the Chinese economy leads to the aggravation of global warming already on a global scale. The PRC leadership officially confirmed in 2010 that China came out on top in the world in terms of carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere, overtaking the United States. Western experts claimed that this happened back in 2007.

Dried lizards at a traditional Chinese medicine market in Xi'an.

Traditional Chinese medicine, which widely uses the organs of various animals, along with other anthropogenic factors, threatens the existence of rare species such as rhinos, Amur tigers, etc.

2.2. Chinese threat to various countries

Western world

For Western countries, the emerging economic dominance of China in almost all spheres of the economy is a threat. Due to economic factors, Chinese goods can be produced much cheaper than Western counterparts, which leads to the death of entire sectors of the economy in Western countries. Thanks to a huge positive trade balance, China has accumulated significant financial resources that threaten the financial independence of Western countries. This superiority of China was demonstrated by the financial crisis of 2008, which failed to even slow down the growth of the Chinese economy, while it led to a significant decline in the rest of the world.

During the 1990s - 2000s, China's exports to the United States exceeded imports by several times. Thanks to this significant trade skew with China, the US has become China's biggest debtor. As of December 2009, the US debt to China (together with Hong Kong) was over $1.1 trillion. USD United States, and about 1.4 trillion more. USD The US was held in the PRC's gold and foreign exchange reserves in the form of US financial obligations.

Cheap Chinese goods have led to the death of numerous US industrial sectors.

The US military threat from the PRC has existed since the early 1950s due to US allied obligations to Taiwan (Republic of China), which the PRC considers part of China. However, since the early 1980s, the likelihood of a direct military conflict between the United States and China has decreased, since both countries are in close economic dependence.

Western Europe

Modern Russia and CIS countries

In modern Russia and the CIS countries, the term “yellow danger” is used figuratively as a description of a potential threat to the expansion of the Far East, which actually or imaginary comes from countries inhabited by people of the “yellow race” (primarily China). Nevertheless, the high population density and the lower standard of living of the population are pushing the Chinese, Vietnamese, and others to work in Russia, to illegally transit migration to the EU through the Russian Federation. Fuel is added to the fire by numerous border disputes between the PRC and the CIS countries, as well as the active state policy of the PRC to resettle the Han people to the outskirts of the country where they did not previously live (in the previously almost completely Turkic-Muslim Xinjiang, as well as Inner Mongolia and Tibet).

Russia is a direct neighbor of China with several thousand kilometers of a common border, and at the same time it is significantly inferior to it in terms of population, economic power and development dynamics. All this in itself is a potential threat to Russia. In addition, in China, the treaties of the mid-19th century that established the basis of the current border with Russia are considered unequal. The conflict on Damansky Island (1969) demonstrated China's potential aggressiveness towards Russia.

The economic dominance of China in the Far East region and the increased migration of Chinese to Russia are also dangerous.

Shenyang J-11, a Chinese copy of the Su-27.

The Chinese have also carried out a number of successful thefts of Russian scientific and technological developments, especially in the military sphere. At the moment, China has launched serial production of the J-10, Shenyang J-11 and FC-1 fighters, which are copies of the Russian Su-27/30 and MiG-29.

Description of the hypothetical future of Russia under the conditions of Chinese hegemony is contained in Vladimir Sorokin's novels The Day of the Oprichnik and the Sugar Kremlin.

Asian countries

For Asian countries, China poses a threat both with its economic power, which does not allow the economies of other countries to develop, and with its military potential, since China has territorial claims against almost all of its neighbors, primarily Taiwan and India. The political ambitions of the Chinese leadership were demonstrated in several armed conflicts: with India (1962, 1967), Korea (1950-1953), Vietnam (1979). In a number of countries there is a terrorist Maoist underground that aims to seize power. Inside the PRC, the concept of "lost territories" of foreign countries continues to be used, the sovereignty of which is formally recognized at the international level.

African countries

African countries are considered by the leadership of the PRC primarily as a source of raw materials and a sales market. Therefore, the Chinese are making significant efforts to secure potential deposits for themselves, while not shunning cooperation with dictatorial regimes. Ultimately, this leads to massive violations of human rights in African countries and the inhibition of their economic development.

Bibliography:

Steingart, Gabor. The War for Wealth - The True Story of Globalization, or Why the Flat World is Broken. McGraw Hill, 2008.

Bill Hertz. The China Threat: How the People's Republic Targets America. Regnery Press, 2002.

Constantine C. Menges. China: The Gathering Threat. Thomas Nelson, 2005.

Herbert Yee, Ian Storey (Eds). China Threat: Perceptions Myths. Routledge, 2004.

Samuelson, P. "Where Ricardo and Mill Rebut and Confirm Arguments of Mainstream Economists Supporting Globalization", Journal of Economic Perspectives 18, 2004.

Theodore Moran. China's Strategy to Secure Natural Resources: Risks, Dangers, and Opportunities (Policy Analyzes in International Economics). Peterson Institute for International Economics, 2010.

China's foreign exchange reserves, 1977-2010, chinability.com

Robert Lawrence Kuhn. How China's Leaders Think: The Inside Story of China's Reform and What This Means for the Future. Wiley, 2009.

Talking boycott. "Gazeta.Ru"

Mun S. Ho, Chris P. Nielsen (Eds). Clearing the Air: The Health and Economic Damage of Air Pollution in China. The MIT Press, 2007.

Brian K. Weirum, Special to the Chronicle Will traditional Chinese medicine mean the end of the wild tiger?. Sfgate.com (2007-11-11).

Rhino rescue plan decimates Asian antelopes. Newscientist.com.

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US federal deficit: who owns America's debt? Guardian, March 2010.

China holds more U.S. debt than indicated, The Washington Times, March 2, 2010.

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The colonial issue for Caisley Hayford is inseparable from the racial issue. “When in history,” he asks, “Caucasians treated Negroes or Mongols – a black, yellow or brown person – in the spirit of universal brotherhood, as Jesus Christ taught us in the Gospel, when Caucasians saw in their countries not only markets and sources natural resources, but raised another race to the level of development and degree of freedom of their race? The question for the author is rhetorical. He viewed race relations through the evolutionary lens of Herbert Spencer, a British philosopher whose ideas were very popular in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. Christian principles are incompatible with natural selection.

"What does 'yellow threat' mean?" asks Quamankra his teenage son Ekra Kvoe. The answer is detailed. The father explains that there are white, yellow, red and black races on earth. Each of them occupies a certain territory. For example, "those who live on small islands somewhere in the English Channel" are called Englishmen. And then there are the Japanese, "these brave guys", Indians, Africans. Most races have to fight for self-preservation, their relationship, according to Spencer, is determined by the principle "survival of the fittest." The survivors are those who "resist better than others."

It is necessary to resist “...certain nations that call themselves Christians and claim a monopoly in culture, knowledge and civilization, and therefore believe that they are endowed by God with the right to live and prosper, and the lot of the rest is to be under their domination. Those who seek to rule are predominantly white. When browns, yellows, or blacks resist and show unwillingness to comply, white Christians begin to scream hysterically, “Yellow Menace” or “Black Menace,” as the case may be.”

Caisley Hayford lists the Russians among this infamous cohort of self-appointed pretenders to world domination. "Why do you call the Japanese brave guys?" asks Ekra Qou. The answer is obvious, there is a Russo-Japanese war: “They are now fighting the Russians, they are proving that they are not going to obey anyone, and this causes hysteria about the “yellow threat”.” Casey Hayford does not deny the Japanese themselves the right to possess the empire, on the contrary, if only Asian peoples fall under their civilizing hand. Kwamankra takes out his album of newspaper clippings, finds the letter "I" and reads an excerpt from a speech delivered in the House of Peers of the Japanese Diet: "Our sacred duty as the most progressive nation in Asia is to extend a helping hand to China, India and Korea, to all Asians who trust us and capable of civilized development. We, their stronger neighbor, want them to free themselves from European slavery and prove to the world the ability of the East to cross swords with the West on any battlefield. These words, Quamankra believes, contain a principle that he would like to instill in his son “at the level of the subcortex”, so that he will be guided by it all his life.

Casey Hayford considers the Russians to be an Asian people, but the goal of their territorial expansion is not a civilizing mission and helping the oppressed, like in Japan, but the suppression of other peoples. Explaining to his son the essence of the “Eastern Question”, Kvamankra reduced this most complicated plot of world politics to the intrigues of Russia: “All this from the very beginning was the work of the Russians. Once they occupied the corner of Asia Minor, having no access to the North, Baltic and Black Seas. And now the time has come when Emperor Peter the Great developed the idea of ​​​​expansion in the direction of the Crimea and north to the Baltic Sea. Then the Russian Empress Catherine II began to fulfill the dream of Peter, and since then it has become the national policy of the Russian Bear. So in the time of Emperor Nicholas I, things came to the Crimean War, in which Russia was the aggressor, the wolf from the well-known fable, and Turkey was the lamb. Caisley Hayford admits that the Turks "mistreated Greek Orthodox Christians in the Sultan's domain" (Slavs not counting?), but this does not detract from Turkey's "self-preservation" struggle, which the Russians see as a "Muslim threat."

The bloodthirsty bear is a stereotypical image of Russia created by the British press during the Great Game and used as a bogey of the "Russian threat" to Muslims. It is not surprising that Caisley Hayford also adopted it, but his view of the division of the world is fundamentally different from the position of the British patriot.

The author is simply silent about the behavior of the European powers that entered into an alliance with the Ottoman Empire against Russia. Europeans against Europeans, whites against whites? But what about the simple and clear scheme: the white race striving for dominance against other races? The Russians and the British, says Casey Hayford, are smeared with the same world like white predators. John Bull is just as aggressive towards "weaker races" as the Russian Bear. Take the opium wars with China. “All the Christian nations of Europe,” Quamankra inspires his son, “are characterized by the error of self-affirmation, none can restrain the cries of “yellow menace” or “black menace” when they encounter resistance in one form or another. As if in one hand they carry a God-given privilege, and in the other - an indulgence to rob and conquer the rest.

What will happen if the "struggle for survival" of non-white races turns into "self-affirmation", that is, into a desire for dominance? This obvious problem is not discussed by Caisley Hayford.

He is tormented by the unenviable position of the black race, more than others suffered from white predators: “The African, wherever he is, is threatened by a double danger. This situation is a consequence of economic conditions, where the African is exploited wherever possible. He is forced to serve a person, a very specific person, a Caucasian. Until then, he will never be able to fully enjoy the fruits of his labor as a human being. He is involved in the construction of sidewalks, which he may not have to walk on. Consider it a metaphor or a fact, whatever you like. He provides tax revenues to fill the treasury, the expenditure of funds from which he in most cases does not control properly, if at all. In short, he is stigmatized as belonging to the lowest caste among the races, and any attempt to rise above the place allotted to him meets with the indignation of the aristocratic races. He is constantly reminded that the limit of his abilities is to be a woodcutter and a water carrier.

The only way out is to develop "our own concept of salvation." It is impossible to ignore the ascension experience of other races, but it is impossible to turn into imitators. Caisley Hayford considers the Meiji Revolution in Japan to be an example worthy of imitation, since the key to the success of Japanese modernization is the reliance on traditions and the preservation of cultural identity: “The Japanese, of necessity, borrowed and assimilated Western culture, but this did not prevent them from making the West respect them. The Japanese have something special, oriental. To begin with, they use their native language, the Japanese have their own literature, enriched with translations of foreign classics. The Japanese respect the institutions and customs of their ancestors and are inspired by the wisdom of the past. He does not renounce the national costume, and if he puts on a western outfit, then for convenience, just like a Scot, while abroad, he takes off his mountain costume when circumstances so require.

Like Japan, Caisley Hayford believed, Africa must synthesize its achievements and all the best that has been created in the world: “The African must succeed not only in mastering the arts and sciences, but also in mastering technical specialties. He must conduct scientific research that will open the way to his national treasury of knowledge and achievements. Only in this way, remaining ourselves, you can embark on the path of progress and "take a worthy place among the world nations."

Casey Hayford assessed the experience of African Americans in joining civilization negatively. He made a fundamental distinction between "African American" (Booker Washington, William Dubois) and "African" (Wilmot Blyden) schools of social thought. According to the first, “the black man strives to prove himself as a being capable of spiritual and material development in accordance with the ideas of progress among whites” and eventually become like them. B. Washington wanted to "ensure the growth of the material well-being of the black man in the United States." Dubois - "to achieve his social liberation in an environment unfavorable for the development of the black race." The African school asserts that "the black man is destined for a grander mission - to find his place in the universal family in accordance with his natural and national characteristics."

Following Blyden, Caseley Hayford sharply criticized representatives of the African American school. Commenting on Dubois' reflections in Souls of the Black People about the duality of consciousness of Negroes as Africans and Americans, he writes: “Obviously, Dubois thinks like an American living among American realities. This, of course, is not his problem, he does not know another world. He is an African born in America, the great empire of the dollar, where individualism is rampantly exalted, where the weak are forced to take care of themselves, and their pleas for help do not excite those who ride fortune. He is entangled in circumstances that make it impossible to strive for higher ideals. The result is sad: “The average African American living in the United States has lost all connection with the past of his race and is helplessly, hopelessly groping in the dark in search of brothers in spirit among those who are not fit for this for natural and national reasons.”

In America, says Casey Hayford, "the black man has no chance." He lives in an "alien, deadly environment". Having formally received freedom, he remains a "spiritual slave". The only way for African Americans to find themselves is to return “from exile” to Africa, “to the rock from which the Father of all nations once carved them all.” There they will "study in order to unlearn everything that foreign sophistry has clouded their heads with." All "thinking African Americans" should "fall to the spiritual sources, to the "fresh streams and fountains of Africa, which will refresh their brains." Only then will they be seized by a passion for spiritual ascent.

Caseley Hayford defended Blyden's chimerical idea that African Americans cannot and should not live in the US and must return to Africa. Time has shown Blyden and his followers wrong. In a dispute between two schools, an African American won.

Caisley Hayford not only promoted, but also creatively developed Blyden's formulated "some fundamental principles of African nationalism"

The last wave of Asian hordes (Mongol-Tatars) swept over Europe in the 13th century, flooded most of Russia and reached the fields of Hungary, where they stopped. This wave entered Europe through the wide gate between the Ural Mountains and the Caspian Sea.

In the 14th century, the Asian hordes (Turks), moving through Asia Minor, crossed to the European mainland, conquered the entire Balkan Peninsula, Hungary, and only in the 17th century were stopped at Vienna, after which their reverse movement begins.

Mainly through the efforts of the Slavic tribes, the movement from Asia to Europe of Asian peoples - the Mongols, Tatars and Turks - was not only stopped, but with the advance of the Slavs, the northern part of Asia passes into the hands of the Russian tribe. At the same time, in southern Europe, the Turks were expelled not only from Hungary, but were able to save only a small part of it on the Balkan Peninsula. This struggle, waged against the Asian tribes by the Slavs for several centuries, although it protected Europe from being enslaved by Asia, weakened the Slavs, especially the Russian tribe, and was the reason for the cultural backwardness of the Slavs from other European peoples. Taking advantage of the security of Asia, the European tribes - Romanesque, Anglo-Saxon and Germanic - go on the offensive from Europe to other continents of the whole world and take possession of America, Australia, Africa and vast expanses of Asia in India and Indo-China.

The enormous development of the manufacturing industry of European states in the 19th century causes a need for them in markets around the world for the sale of excess factory products and for obtaining the products of Russian countries that are missing for the population of Europe, mainly raw materials. Most of the population of the Western European states, especially England and Germany, is now already engaged in factory activities. Not only the retention in their hands of the markets they have already conquered, but their expansion is now becoming a matter of vital importance for the Western European states.

Meanwhile, in the 19th century, a turn in the affairs of the world market was already marked. Also armed with the fruits of European culture, including in the military field, the peoples of other continents, except for the European one, begin to rebuff the European product and the European bayonet. The mottos are proclaimed: "America for Americans", "Asia for Asians". Behind them the mottos will be proclaimed: "Africa for Africans", "Australia for Australians". In this respect, America is the first to firmly stand on its feet and is already successfully waging an industrial struggle against Europe. In Africa, the awakening of the local population in a more acute form has already affected the struggle of the Abyssinians with the Italians, the Boers with the British, in the struggle of the Muslims in the Nile basin with the British, in the struggle in Algeria and Morocco against the French and Spaniards. But a particular threat to Europe is the movement against the Europeans, which began in Asia, Emperor Wilhelm III calls this movement "yellow peril" and prophetically indicates the seriousness of this danger. It is really impossible not to recognize as dangerous a movement against Europe, in which a population of about 800 million souls can take part, with an army of several million people.

The Asian market is of particular importance for Europe in the 20th century. Even at the end of the 18th century, relations between Europe and Asia from the side of the Pacific coast were negligible. But already at the end of the 19th century, several tens of thousands of steam ships moored to the ports of the Pacific Ocean a year.

Over the past 50 years of the last century, the turnover of China's foreign trade only from ports open to Europeans increased more than 10 times and amounted to more than 0.5 billion rubles a year. And this is despite the still negligible purchasing power of the Chinese population. In the 20th century, this purchasing power may increase several times, which will make it possible for the European states to have trade in the Pacific, estimated at several billion rubles a year.

The Japanese are expanding their activities along the Pacific coast with great energy. With the very low freight rates they have achieved, in comparison with Europeans and Americans, for the transportation of goods, it becomes very difficult to compete with them (cheap sailors, their cheap maintenance, low remuneration for senior employees).

The digging of the Panama Canal will give the Americans, in comparison with the Europeans, significant trade benefits in the Pacific Ocean. In a very short time, the Japanese, together with the Americans, can force the Europeans out of the Pacific, which will be tantamount to depriving Europe of markets on the Pacific coast (on both sides) with a population of about 700 million souls.

There is also another threat from America: the Americans are beginning to fight against exporting raw materials to Europe, including cotton.

Taking into account all of the above, it can be recognized that the offensive movement of the European peoples against the continents of the whole world already in the 19th century encounters a counter wave of the awakening peoples of Asia and Africa.

It can therefore be foreseen that in the 20th century the European peoples will have to switch from the offensive to the defense of the positions they have occupied. The positions taken by Russia, Britain, France, Germany and the Netherlands in Asia will be especially threatened. These positions can be wrested from the European states by force, by defeating the European armed forces defending them.

The loss of possessions in Asia and other continents, the loss of world markets constitutes such a threat to the most vital interests of Europe that in order to remove the danger, all European states, forgetting their mutual scores, must unite their efforts to repulse the forces of other races. The population of these other races is now openly preparing forces for the purpose of driving old Europe into her geographic stocking, dooming her to a modest existence in an insignificant territory, amid the mighty development of life in all directions on the vast continents of Asia, America and Africa, freed from European tutelage.

The role of Russia in the events of global importance being prepared in the 20th century is enormous. Russia has already taken upon itself in the 20th century the first onslaught of the yellow race and has not been successful. There are many reasons for this, but one of the main ones is Britain's support for the Japanese enemies of Europe. America's support for Japan may seem natural because America is Europe's natural future enemy. But Britain's support for Japan is the result of a grave misunderstanding. Because of the mythical fear of Russia's invasion of India, England with her own hands created not a mythical, but a real danger for the same India. The Europeans are held in Asia by the prestige of their invincibility. The victory in Asia over the Russians is, in general, the victory of the Asiatic over the European. Feeling his strength, the Asiatic will apply them not only to Russian possessions, but in general to the Asian possessions of England, France, Germany.

The fight is just beginning. What happened on the fields of Manchuria in 1904-1905 was only a vanguard battle. For the benefit of all of Europe, it is necessary that, with the new pressure of the Japanese or Chinese on Russia, the forces of Europe should be with her, and not against her. For the good of Europe, it is necessary that India be defended not only by the British, but also by the Russians. The same is true of Indo-China and German possessions and enterprises in Asia.

With the unanimous recognition that the maintenance of peace in Asia is a pan-European matter, and that all the powers of Europe are preparing to unite their forces to defend and develop the position they now occupy in Asia, the "yellow peril" can be eliminated for a long time.

America's proposal to take the railroads in Manchuria under the collective protection of America and Europe constitutes the first step towards putting the question of the yellow danger on the agenda and giving it world significance.

The interests of the American population are so great on the Pacific coast, and so opposed to the interests of the Japanese and Europeans, that between America, Japan, and the European powers a struggle of great importance for markets is inevitable.

It seems desirable that in the twentieth century the peoples of the European Union should come to an agreement with an alliance of American states in order to maintain in European and American hands the dominant position on the Pacific coast and to preserve the use of America's wealth, raw and processed, for the European powers.

In general, it will be an alliance of the peoples of the white race against the peoples of the yellow race and blacks. The division into these two groups will closely correspond to the division into two groups according to religious beliefs. In one camp there will be Christians, in the other pagans. According to the calculation of the German scientist Mr. Zeller, the population of the entire globe is, in round figures, 1,500 million people, including 500 million Christians, 800 million pagans, 200 million Mohammedans. Among the pagans, 300 million followers of the teachings of Confucius, 200 million million Buddhists. Jews 10 million people. With the future likely clash of the white race with the yellow, the role of the Mohammedans is mysterious. For religious and political reasons, especially if the clash of the white and yellow races is marked initially by the success of the yellow-faced, the Mohammedans can unite with the pagans in order to overthrow the yoke of the white-faced Christians by common efforts. Then for every Christian there will be two non-Christian enemies.

In particular, it is important for Russia that in the event of a new attack on her in the Far East, she could have to fight the yellow race with all their armed forces.

Hence the urgent need for a firm agreement between Russia and Austria and Prussia on the affairs of the Middle East. Only with such an agreement will Russia be ready to give a formidable rebuff to the new onslaught of the yellow-faced on her.

Considering the question of the future fate of Europe from the broad point of view indicated above, it is clear how dangerous and untimely it is now for European states to spend their forces and resources on mutual strife. One can imagine what rejoicing would break out in Japan, China, many African lands, and even in America, if, for example, over the form in which the annexation of Bosnia and Herzegovina was announced by Austria, a European war broke out between several first-class European powers. The same rejoicing will begin if England and Germany enter into an armed struggle between themselves.

Each weakening of the forces of one or another of the European powers only increases the danger for Europe of losing in the 20th century the world position that it now occupies, increases, in particular, the significance of the "yellow danger".

The annual population growth of only the four most important states of Europe, except for Russia, is about 2.5 million souls. This increase finds employment only with the ever-increasing growth of factory industry. This type of activity in the main European states employs more than half of the total population. If Europe is forced out of the markets of other continents, then a colossal crisis awaits it. The constantly growing Social-Revolutionary Party will impart to this crisis due to the closure of factories, the dismissal of millions of workers, due to starvation, a terrible, all-destroying force.

Europe can successfully fight against the destructive social teachings of the new time, only as fully as possible to ensure the results of the work of its population. This is possible only with dominance in the markets of Asia and Africa. Only by joining forces, European states can keep these markets for themselves in the 20th century.

The agreement of all European states, in order to defend the dominant position on the Asian and African continents in the 20th century, will stop the possibility of armed struggle between the various states that are members of the future European Union.

The second beneficial result of the creation of the European Union will be the suspension of armaments, and then the reduction in military spending.

At present, the European, for purposes not only cultural, but also military, has subjugated the earth, water, and now subjugates the air. For the use of all the forces of nature for the purposes of war, ever-increasing huge amounts of money are being expended. The European Union, having reached the limitation of armaments in Asia by Japan and China, will also be able to reduce the content of its military forces in Europe.

Today, every European state maintains an army of civilians in approximately 1% of the population. For every 100 inhabitants of both sexes, 1 soldier is kept in peacetime. It will be possible, by general agreement, to move initially to keeping 1 soldier per 150 inhabitants, and then to maintaining 1 soldier per 200 inhabitants only. With a corresponding limitation, also by agreement, of naval forces, it will be possible to achieve a significant reduction in the costs of all the states of Europe.

These savings will help extract another important result from the European Union.

By using the funds received from the reduction of military spending to raise the well-being of the working masses, by coming to their aid against the now omnipotent capital, the states of Europe will facilitate the peaceful resolution of the acute social problem caused by the unsecured situation of the working classes, and will rebuff the destructive doctrines masses to violence in order to completely overthrow the existing order.